Intent
What do they want?
Request a briefingAdversarial Risk Management
A risk method for opponents who observe, select and adapt.
ARM complements conventional enterprise risk management where deliberate, intelligent adversaries are involved. It begins with the adversary, then tests whether intent, capability and opportunity can converge.
The problem
Hazards do not study your defences. Adversaries do.
Conventional enterprise risk methods are highly effective for events that occur without intent and without regard for your defences. They struggle with opponents who observe controls, select targets, change tactics when challenged and wait for attention to move elsewhere.
The ICO triad
Capability
What can they actually do?
Opportunity
Where can they act successfully?
Remove any one element and the threat does not materialise. The analysis therefore asks which actor has all three, against which asset, and through which pathway.
Traditional risk vs ARM
Same governance context. A different question set.
What could happen?→Who wants it to happen?
Probability→Intent, capability and opportunity
Hazards→Intelligent adversaries
Controls→Defensive adaptation
Static scenarios→Adaptive attack pathways
Periodic review→Continuous monitoring — the FARM cycle
The FARM cycle
A discipline that continues beyond the assessment.
Frame
Define the threat with precision.
Assess
Test current exposure against that frame.
Respond
Present options with the trade-offs stated.
Monitor
Sustain a disciplined watch the organisation can maintain.
Frequently asked questions
Does ARM replace ISO 31000?
No. It complements conventional enterprise risk management specifically where deliberate, adaptive adversaries are involved.
Is ARM cybersecurity?
No. It addresses cyber, physical, personnel, supply-chain and information attack pathways together.
Who should use ARM?
Organisations facing deliberate hostile threats, particularly where assets, operations or people are strategically important.
Speak directly with RiskAdviza
A confidential 30-minute discussion with the principal adviser.
No sales presentation. Discuss current threat concerns, organisational vulnerabilities, existing risk approaches and whether RiskAdviza is the right fit.